Nationals Fan Attends 19 Games, Team Loses 19 Times

Posted Oct 09, 2009 2:30PM By Ryan Wilson (RSS feed)

Filed Under: MLB

I can't imagine what Stephen Krupin did to anger the baseball gods, but the Washington Nationals season-ticket holder somehow managed to have a worse year than the 103-loss Nats.

Krupin brought himself to sit through 19 home games, and on 19 occasions he left Nationals Park a loser. Yep, he was oh-for-2009. The poor guy documented his travails in an email to the Sports Bog's Dan Steinberg.

I figured that even with the worst team in the bigs, this 0-19 record couldn't have been an easy task. So I asked my cousin--a Ph.D. who works as an economist at the Department of Labor and moonlights as a statistics analyst/columnist on ESPN.com and Baseball Prospectus--to crunch some numbers. He and his mathematician friends figured out that the odds of my going 0-19 this year at Nats Park were 1 in 131,204.

Somehow, the news gets more depressing. After consulting his tabulating machine, the labor economist cousin informs Krupin that, "It's gonna be a long time before you break back to .500. I'm wondering if you were the fan in baseball with the worst record of anybody in games attended. If it's 1 in 130,000, and each team gets a couple million fans on average, you might be the only one who attended at least 19 games and failed to see a win."

I still say that Krupin's experiences pale in comparison to what Redskins fans have had to endure through four weeks. Of course, I'd imagine Krupin's a 'Skins fan, too. In which case maybe he's the problem. That's probably a theory Vinny Cerrato could get behind.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)

10-10-2009 @ 2:17PM

ekissgod said...

WOW

10-10-2009 @ 2:20PM

abird35 said...

"If it's 1 in 130,000, and each team gets a couple million fans on average, you might be the only one who attended at least 19 games and failed to see a win."

WHAT????? I would think 1 in 130,000 means that this will happen to one in every 130,000 fans. LOL. This article makes no sense. I am not saying the numbers are wrong, just that they are not explained properly.

10-10-2009 @ 2:26PM

What's Up GFine! said...

Who cares? This is worthless information.

10-10-2009 @ 2:32PM

maastap said...

yeah but he went to the games against better teams. The formula is nChooseR(#ofhomegameslost,19)/nChooseR(#ofhomegamestotal,19)

10-10-2009 @ 3:45PM

mail4warding said...

let F equal the total number of fans for all of the games; then let X be the number who view only 19 games; L be the total losses; G is 162 games; given the odds of viewing a loss (or a win) is 1 in 2, 2 losses in a row is 1 in 4,...19 in a row is 2 to the 19th power.

The mathematical reprsentation for calculating the odds would probably NOT be like this:

1. odds of any fan viewing only 19 games
[19/162 x X/F]

2. odds of any fan viewing only 19 losses
[19/162 x X/F] / [2 to 19th power]

3. odds of a fan viewing only 19 losses is
1 in 130,000

10-10-2009 @ 2:34PM

blueticklam said...

Baseball ? Hell Naw .I'm ready for some football !
Baseball is for people that love soccer & golf. Skirt boys that dateboys named Thad like baseball. It's snowing in Denver for God's sake. Baseball ? you talking Baseball ? Hell naw ! Sissy sport !

10-10-2009 @ 4:29PM

matt said...

What, swinging around a two-foot stick and clocking 90 MPH projectiles ain't manly enough? Let's see... football:
12-hour training sessions for 5-second bursts of activity
Half of each team justs runs into the other half
Stolen title from soccer
Therefore:
The training is overdone
You can have the build and intelligence of an angry bull to play
Inventors too dumb to come up with a good name
For baseball you need to have cleverness as well as dexterity, something that the players as well as fans of football apparently lack, taking your typing into account.
Now, VOLLEYBALL is a sissy sport.

10-10-2009 @ 5:57PM

Joe? Terri? said...

Really?!? For people who love soccer and golf? I think those people love soccer and golf. Baseball is for people who love baseball. It's a sport that must require too much thinking for you to understand. Moron.

10-10-2009 @ 10:35PM

klcpcrew said...

yo blueticket.... ur not tough cuz u can watch football... any tough guy can watch it

10-10-2009 @ 2:44PM

A. Maya said...

wait, this IS the Nationals we are talking about. the odds of going 0 for 19 are about 1 in 19.

10-10-2009 @ 2:45PM

Jim said...

Redskins fans enduring for 4 weeks? What about the poor Lions fans. It's not just the 0 for 16 record last season, it's the lack of winning the championship since the 50's. Even so, games are sellouts, so Mr. Ford has no incentive to field a better team.

10-10-2009 @ 2:54PM

hoser3699 said...

Wouldn't the odds of losing 19 games in a row be 1 in 524,288?

10-10-2009 @ 4:51PM

waltd825 said...

hoser3699 said...
Wouldn't the odds of losing 19 games in a row be 1 in 524,288?

I totally agree! 2 to the power of 19 is indeed 524,288, not 131,204 as stated in the article. In fact, 131,204 is close to the odds of losing 17 games in a row, not 19.

10-11-2009 @ 12:43AM

chocolate said...

Wow,; but who cares? This is just a random online article.... you guys must be like the people in my math class that actually CHECK the examples in the math book, and find every STINKING error when they grade my homework! Or you're just REALLY bored.

10-10-2009 @ 2:57PM

EHS797 said...

basketball...the greatest game ever

10-10-2009 @ 3:20PM

cougarxr1218 said...

I can empathize with this fan. A loyal season ticket holder, who, faithfully attended 19 games and not to see a win is a chilling experience. I for one, as a Yankee fan, could only imagine what it would have been like to attend our home games, pay $250-350 for the privilege, and to see my team lose would have certainly been sad. If i were him, I would strongly consider buying tickets on an on demand schedule, and perhaps back to winning games.

10-10-2009 @ 4:46PM

beassct said...

"loyal season ticket holder" who "faithfully attended" 19 games????????........
you call 19 out of 81 home games "loyal" & "faithful" attendance??????
I guess Yankee fans are more out of touch with reality and more in touch with "hype" than I thought!

irkeith said...

If he had consumed 6 large beers at each game then he would have consumed a total of 114 beers at a cost of approximately $570; he would have left each game happy and would probably not have known/cared who won.
.
NOW there's some statistics for you...

10-10-2009 @ 4:00PM

hlfordiii said...

What's Up GFine! said...
Who cares? This is worthless information.

You gotta love someone who says they don't care, yet cares enough to take the time to post a comment. Dude, there is a village out there somewhere looking for you.